I'd like to finish up the course with a discussion that loops us really right back from the beginning. Looking at the relationship between 9/11 and the conditions now in the modern Middle East. Because this is where we started. 9/11 emanated from the problems, troubles, political difficulties and movements, emanating from the modern Middle East. So I think it's appropriate to finish by looking at the condition of the modern Middle East and try to project and how that is going to affect the threats that we face in the years to come from this particular form of violence. Just to recap, recall, from the Middle East experience periods of colonialism, followed by states developing authoritarian rule. And then, also, a period of US military interventionism. All of which developed this critique, this ideology, this sense of grievance against the West, in particular, the United States, among a small but important portion of the population within these countries, leading to the formation of these extremist movements. And, specifically, terrorist groups that planned and plotted 9/11. Al Qaeda, now, in modern day, is ISIS, and many other like minded groups with similar ideologies and strategies for using violence to bring about their political objectives. Now, if we look back in modern recent history, we think about the year 2011 as actually a moment of hope that we would be turning the corner, that some sort of fundamental change was in the air. And two things happened, first, there were the Arab uprisings. That started in Tunisia, but quickly spread to Egypt, toppled dictators, including Mubarak in Egypt. It was brought about not by some sort of Islamic revolution or a radical revolution, but, principally, by young people challenging the corrupted state, authority, authoritarian rulers, and trying to bring about change, calling for both political and economic change. And, of course, the Arab uprisings took place not just in Tunisia, Egypt, but in many other countries, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, in the region. The second reason that seemed like we were turning the corner, was the raid that led to the death of bin Laden, which seemed to be symbolic of how al Qaeda was on the run, how this organization was being devastated by raids, drone strikes, and was beginning to collapse. The hope was, that with these continued efforts, al Qaeda as a global, powerful organization would be sapped of its energy and this threat would minimize. And combined with new politics coming out of the Arabs spring, would maybe suck the momentum, the grievance that was driving the violence that we have seen for many decades, as we know from earlier parts of the course. Now, unfortunately, that moment of hope really turned out not to be the case. We got a new counter movement. ISIS forming as response to violence, as we've learned from prior lectures, violence in Iraq, then migrating to Syria back to Iraq and taking massive amounts of territory. And al Qaeda during this period has actually continued to strengthen and proliferate throughout many regions within the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. And these movements, whether they be al Qaeda, ISIS or affiliated groups, they continue to challenge state authority, states that have been weakened in many ways by the Arab uprisings. So they're delegitimizing the governments in these countries, making good governance and decency more difficult, not less. In some instances, leading to failed states and civil war. We're also seeing, during this period, heightened sectarianism, which is increasing violence in the region, increasing senses of grievance and hardship for the populations in the Middle East. And, like in many other places around the world, this Anti-Globalization movement is used by these groups to spread the ideology that the west is coming to the region to suck out the resources, to impose their values on Muslims living in the region and have to be opposed. All of this trends have continued and been exacerbated in recent years. While the Arab uprisings led to revolutions and changes in government, in some places, unfortunately, the main impact has been civil war and the disintegration of government and failed states throughout the region. Of course, in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq. None of which have strong central governments. None of which have governments that control the totality of their territory. And are racked by civil war, which have had huge, huge humanitarian impact. Whether it be refugees flown into Europe, internal displacement, massive refugee camps through out the Middle East. In Jordan, some of the largest cities in Jordan are now filled with Syrian refugees. Yemen, we have millions of people who are in crisis and in need of humanitarian assistance. We have no semblance of strong governance in any of the countries. And the grievance and violence and dissettlement is only likely to perpetuate grievances that give rise to extremism. And the lack of strong governance is also open space. Of course, in Syria, for groups like ISIS, and throughout the region for extremist groups, which can have safe havens, they can plan attacks, they can actually take control of civilian populations, and terrorize them. So this breakdown of state authority is actually fueling extremism, rather than the hope from back in 2011, that the Arab uprisings would actually lead to a new form of governance that would lessen the grievance. We've also seen actually increased authoritarianism, less democracy in places that were much more stable previously. In Egypt, in response to the Arab uprisings, there was an election and an Islamist government was elected. But soon, thereafter, there was essentially a counter coup that put in place a new Mubarak totalitarian Governor Abu Fattah el-Sisi. And he has cracked down using authoritarian techniques of arresting his opponents. Cracking down on free speech, and breaking down civil society. So we're seeing in Egypt, authoritarianism, which we know helped fuel the grievances that lead to al Qaeda. Even in Turkey, which is a NATO ally and considered a full functioning democracy not that long ago. We have Recep Tayyip Erodgan, who, his party took power in a fair, free election, trying to bring more Islamic governance and principles into Turkey, which had been previously highly secularized. However, in recent years, has moved much more towards authoritarianism, has accrued more personal power. Changed office to the presidency, which has gained many more authoritarian powers. And is using practices like jailing journalists, putting his political enemies under both surveillance and incarceration, even exporting thuggery to other countries. So, tragically, in two allies, what we're seeing since 2011 and in recent years, is increased authoritarianism, which is only likely to exacerbate grievances and bring about more extremism. Finally, we're seeing a heightened sense of sectarianism between Sunnis and Shia. Of course, for centuries there's been rivals between Sunni and Shia Islam. And there've been historical instances of violence, but there's also been plenty of integration, even intermarriage between Sunni and Shia. Cities and neighborhoods where Sunni and Shia live peacefully together. We know from our prior lectures in the Iraq war, of course, this began to break down dramatically, where there was ethnic cleansing between Sunni and Shia. And now, with the rise of these Sunni extremist groups, like ISIS, that see Shia as non Muslims and have been using an extraordinary, gruesome violence against not only Shia Muslims, but other minority groups. A strong heightening sectarianism that is infecting many, many regions throughout the Middle East. Much of this is fueled from the political rivalry between Saudi Arabia, the cornerstone of Sunni Islam, and of course Iran, the cornerstone of Shia Islam. Both of these countries vying for predominance and hegemony in the region. Both seeing each other as main threats, national security threats. And because of this, they stoke the sectarianism, and the competition and, of course, the violence in the region. So we have a region with little good governance wracked by failed states and violence, and now this heightened sectarianism as well. So my key points, take away at the end of this course are, very unfortunately, and tragically, the modern Middle East is wracked with civil war, failing or weak states, poor governance, and sectarian rivalry. Unfortunately, these conditions continue to feed the narrative of extremist groups and allow al Qaeda, ISIS, and like-minded organizations to proliferate within sections of the civilian population throughout the region. Finally, it's my view until this region stabilizes and experiences a semblance of decent governance, extremist violence emanating from this region is going to continue and cause many challenges for both the United States and the western world.
