Now when we run this scenario in the project schedule,
we notice that the pile work could be delayed at the beginning.
Not only during the construction but the start of it.
So the best case in this scenario had the pile work starting in January 2018 and
finishing in October 2018 for nine month duration.
And after we put the risks on it, 80% chance or or
80% of all my scenarios, did not exceed.
I start in February 2018 and finish by December 2018 and
give us a total delay of one month.
So now, we can see this one bar that could be an activity or could be a project,
that has a range of start and a range of finish.
And if we define a confidence level, like in this case.
The 80% confidence level is that the project will
not finish in October like the no-risk fund tells us but
is more likely to finish in December.
We need to make a decision.
We need to make a decision for how do we advertise this project?
Do we call December 2018 our
completion date and have a contingency part at the end.
That's where planning actually takes place, but
it gets in form by this exercise, this risk assessment exercise.
And that's what explains how risk
assessment supports the planning process.
Well I hope these examples can
give you a more tangible application of risk management.
I want to finish with a few remarks.
[COUGH] Risk management
is here to support decisions, inform how to make decisions
with limited information and when the information is uncertain or lacking.
It's based on a systematic approach, as you have seen.
And it's traceable, and it's transparent.
And in this stage in time, transparency is a very big deal.
It's very important, especially when you're talking about public monies.
And the use of, public assets to create a engineer or
a construction project.