Welcome back to our course on Disruptive Innovations Implications for Society of FinTech. In this module, we're going to be looking at predicting the future of FinTech. Now, this follows on modules where we looked at evolution, and revolution, and the implications of disruptive innovations, and what is a disruptive innovation in module one. In module two, we looked at diversity of impact and how the impact of this evolution or revolution is different for different segments of society. We're going to take those two modules and apply what we've developed is a framework, or baseline, or database of insights about different aspects of the market and use that to look to the future, and say what does this mean for where are we going in FinTech. Now, that's a challenge and there are some real challenges of predicting the future. It's actually pretty easy to predict the future because anybody can do it. It's just hard to be right. So, we're going to try to be careful in our predictions to make predictions that have some basis or support and try to give you support for why predictions are made, not just saying this is what we predict, or this is what we think is going to happen, but why? Because it's often more important what's the justification or support do you believe what is predicted. Is it persuasive? So, we're going to look at some benchmarks or some ideas to ask, how can we predict the future based on some fundamental insights or information? We're going to look to technology and we're going to look to leaders in technology and look at technology, and how it changes our world, our capabilities, what can we do today that we couldn't before? Where is that technology heading and how might that affect our future? But technology is not the only thing. Sometimes technology may be great but it may take a long time to be adopted and sometimes technology can suddenly become adopted overnight. The technology may have been around for decades but it's suddenly goes from minuscule market penetration to a tipping point and then suddenly it becomes the dominant market penetration. So, you can go from no one using email or knowing it existed or at least in rare in society to everyone seeming to have email in a relatively short period of time, whereas email may have been around in niche applications for more than a decade before anyone really noticed it and cared and it become popular. Now, we're going to also be on looking to the technology, we're going to look to markets. Why do we look to markets? We're going to look for examples of leadership, and we're going to look for examples of disruption, or examples of major change, examples of what's happening in FinTech. Some people have argued for example that FinTech is China. So, in our first module looking to the markets, we're going to look at China. Now, FinTech is much more than China. So, to say Fintech is China's actually a mistake, but it's an understandable mistake because when you look at the disruptive aspects of FinTech and the impact on financial institutions on established banks and insurance company, FinTech in China is big in terms of its impact. Fintech in the U.S. and Europe is not as big in terms of its impact on existing players. But it's probably bigger than China in terms of the total aggregate capital going into FinTech applications, going into areas because the finance market in U.S. and Europe as an aggregation of all of these countries is much bigger. So, we'll look to the markets in U.S. and Europe and what's going on? What are leading firms doing? What are leading innovators? Because some of the things that disrupted China were variations on things that had happened years earlier in U.S. or Europe and the leading Chinese firms said, "We could do that," and in some cases they did it better. So, it's not like they just copied what had been done in the West, but they said, "Here's a good idea, let's improve on it, let's enhance it, let's make it better, and let's roll that out in a big way far, major transformation for society." The impacts were huge. The impacts in U.S. and Europe may be much smaller, but the technology in some cases is more advanced. In some cases, the technology in China's more advanced. So, it's not like this, it's all one direction. But we need to look at both places as examples of innovation and great ideas, and what the implications are for markets. Then, we can look after we've looked at China and countries around China, we've looked at the U.S. and Europe, we can then look at some predictions by services. This is a four part series. There are four videos looking at predictions by service. You may say, "Why do you have to talk so much?" Because there's a lot to say. When we're predicting the future, it is not the future of banking, it's not the future of finance, it's the future of different services and how their impacts will be felt across different countries or different firms, and these services are very different in their nature. You can't talk about cryptocurrencies and digital payment applications and say they're the same thing. You can't talk about wealth investing as being the same thing as peer-to-peer lending, it's not. There may be some overlaps, and there are. But primarily, these are fairly segregate double services and their impacts are going to be felt deferentially. So, we're going to look at each of four different videos looking at more than four multiple technologies, or approaches, or services as a view of splitting up the market, and talk about each of those in more depth, and then we're going to summarize. This is a long module and for that, perhaps, I should apologize or maybe I should be congratulated for having a lot to say. But it's really the meat as we're looking at this course, Evolution Revolution, it helps to break it into pieces and say let's look at this piece at a time, and where do we see this market going. That also helps us on our next module to look the implications for firms individually and what's going to happen to different companies and different segments in different parts of the market. Thank you, we look forward to having you in this 10 segment, 10 session module. Thank you.
