As you already know,
Russia always insisted that there is close connection
between offensive and defensive strategic weapons.
During the negotiations on The New Start Treaty.
Russia couldn't resolve that problem and only partially that problem was resolved,
when the introductory part of the treaty,
this interconnection was mentioned.
At a time when Russia and the United States
negotiated the new Strategic Arms Abduction Treaty in 2009-2010,
American ballistic missile defense plans we're just at the beginning of implementation.
And at that time, Russian experts believe that the existing.
Ballistic Missile Defense did not undermine strategic stability.
The biggest concern of the Russian militaries was the fact that,
United States political leaders tried to promote the development of
European components of ballistic missile defense and deployed near Russian borders.
According to Russian militaries,
the future possible deployment of ballistic missile defense system in Europe will be
a serious threat for strategic stability because
it could undermine Russia's capability to
retaliate in case of conflict and
mutual vulnerability will be violated.
The US' plans concerning creation of
Global Missile Defense System are regularly reviewed.
So, Russian experts don't know what to expect during the next five,10 years
and this is the biggest concern which
create problems for sustainability of The New Start Treaty.
Although Russian official position,
the position of Russian political leadership is quite static and fundamentally,
it represents the concerns about
future deployment of ballistic missile defense of the United States.
There are some discussions among various Russian experts on the problem.
Some Russian experts believe that,
when the whole system of ballistic missile defense will be deployed,
it anyway will not seriously alter the strategic balance and strategic stability.
They calculate the number of
ballistic missile defense elements of the number of interceptors their trajectories,
the number of Russian offensive weapons and make conclusion that,
only a small part of.
Russian nuclear weapons will be intercepted in case of conflict
so ballistic missile defense will not undermine Russia's capability to retaliate.
The experts calculations show that,
the interceptor missiles stationed in Europe will
be able to threaten only a small fraction of
the Russian nuclear arsenals which will fly in case of retaliation over Scandinavia and
given the fact that modern Russian warheads are equipped with
specific means to overcome the missile defense,
even that small fraction of
Russian retaliation capabilities will be
capable to penetrate through ballistic missile defense system in Europe.
Moreover, the majority of Russian warheads launched
from Russian territory would fly over Arctic,
over Northern Pole, and take into account the time it takes to detect
the launch of these missiles and to make decision to intercept these missiles.
The comparison of the interceptors and the warheads fly times,
shows that it will be almost impossible to destroy the majority of Russian warheads.
These calculations seem to show that,
mutual vulnerability will be preserved even in case of
complete implementation of American plans to
deploy national or even global ballistic missile defense.
But that is just an opinion of a part of military strategic experts.
The majority of Russian military experts,
as well as politicians, political decision makers,
believe that Americans are trying to use at least partially,
the ballistic missile defense system to undermine Russia's abilities to retaliate.
And this way, the deployment of BMD will undermine strategic stability.
There are some indications of that position of
the United States for Russian experts and politicians.
First. Russia proposed several times to create a joint ballistic missile defense system,
at least in Europe,
And that proposition was constantly denied by the United States.
Secondly, Russia tried to convince the United States to negotiate the problem
of ballistic missile defense system and sign some legally-binding agreement,
which would limit the capabilities to intercept
strategic Russian nuclear forces retaliate attack in case of a conflict.
But this initiative have always been rejected by the United States too.
So, this perception of Russian politicians was reinforced by their.
initial deployment of ballistic missile defense systems in Romania,
which coincided with the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis.