An Intuitive Introduction to Probability

University of Zurich

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This course will provide you with an intuitive and practical introduction into Probability Theory. You will be able to learn how to apply Probability Theory in different scenarios and you will earn a "toolbox" of methods to deal with uncertainty in your daily life. The course is split in 5 modules. In each module you will first have an easy introduction into the topic, which will serve as a basis to further develop your knowledge about the topic and acquire the "tools" to deal with uncertainty. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to complete 5 exercise sessions to reflect about the content learned in each module and start applying your earned knowledge right away. The topics covered are: "Probability", "Conditional Probability", "Applications", "Random Variables", and "Normal Distribution". You will see how the modules are taught in a lively way, focusing on having an entertaining and useful learning experience! We are looking forward to see you online!

Cursos 100 % en línea

Comienza de inmediato y aprende a tu propio ritmo.

Nivel principiante

Approx. 13 hours to complete

Sugerido: You will have to invest about 3-4 hours per module to acquire the taught knowledge.

English

Subtítulos: English

Cursos 100 % en línea

Comienza de inmediato y aprende a tu propio ritmo.

Nivel principiante

Approx. 13 hours to complete

Sugerido: You will have to invest about 3-4 hours per module to acquire the taught knowledge.

English

Subtítulos: English

Syllabus - What you will learn from this course

1

Section

4 hours to complete

Probability

In this module we will learn about probabilities and perform our first calculations using probability formulas. We want to get comfortable with the idea that probabilities describe the chance of uncertain events occurring....

7 videos (Total 63 min), 1 reading, 7 quizzes

7 videos

Welcome6m

Introduction5m

Definition and Rules12m

A First Look at Statistical Independence10m

Subjective Probabilities9m

Empirical Probabilities: Benford's Law11m

Exercise7m

1 readings

Script: Part 10m

7 practice exercises

Introductory Quiz2m

1.14m

1.26m

1.34m

1.44m

1.54m

1.64m

2

Section

3 hours to complete

Conditional Probability

The arrival of new information may lead us to alter our probabilistic assessments of uncertain events. In this module, we will learn how the concept of "conditional" probabilities allows us to make these changes correctly. Script of the course can be found here: https://www.coursera.org/learn/introductiontoprobability/resources/qxi9W ...

6 videos (Total 54 min), 1 reading, 6 quizzes

6 videos

Intuition8m

Definition7m

Multiplication Rules10m

Probability Tables9m

Bayes Rule10m

Exercise6m

1 readings

Script: Part 20m

6 practice exercises

2.14m

2.24m

2.34m

2.44m

2.54m

2.64m

3

Section

2 hours to complete

Application

We will discuss some fascinating every-day applications of probability. In addition to entertaining examples, we will also review very serious applications from finance and law....

6 videos (Total 80 min), 6 quizzes

6 videos

The Birthday Problem15m

The Monty Hall Problem11m

Structuring Risks: Part 113m

Structuring Risks: Part 28m

The Prosecutor's Fallacy15m

The Sad Story of Sally Clark16m

6 practice exercises

3.14m

3.22m

3.3.16m

3.3.24m

3.46m

3.56m

4

Section

4 hours to complete

Discrete Random Variables

In this module we move beyond probabilities and learn about important summary measures such as expected values, variances, and standard deviations. We also learn about the most popular discrete probability distribution, the binomial distribution....

8 videos (Total 80 min), 1 reading, 8 quizzes

8 videos

Discrete Random Variables11m

Expected Value12m

Measures of Dispersion8m

Application: Financial Model5m

Binomial Distribution17m

Application: Airline Overbooking11m

Exercise 16m

Exercise 25m

1 readings

Script: Part 40m

8 practice exercises

4.14m

4.24m

4.34m

4.44m

4.52m

4.64m

4.76m

4.84m

5

Section

3 hours to complete

Normal Distribution

We want to get comfortable with the normal distribution. We will discuss what the famous bell curve really represents. And we will learn how easy it is to calculate normal probabilities....

6 videos (Total 57 min), 1 reading, 5 quizzes

6 videos

Continuous Random Variables14m

Normal Distribution9m

Calculating Normal Probabilities9m

Calculations with the Normal Distribution7m

Application of the Normal Distribution8m

Exercise7m

1 readings

Script: Part 50m

5 practice exercises

5.14m

5.24m

5.34m

5.44m

5.54m

Instructor

Karl Schmedders

Professor of Quantitative Business Administration

About University of Zurich

Founded in 1833, the University of Zurich (UZH) is Switzerland’s largest university, with a current enrollment of over 26,000 students. Made up of seven faculties covering approximately 100 different subject areas, UZH is proud to offer the most comprehensive academic program in the country....

Frequently Asked Questions

When will I have access to the lectures and assignments?
Once you enroll for a Certificate, you’ll have access to all videos, quizzes, and programming assignments (if applicable). Peer review assignments can only be submitted and reviewed once your session has begun. If you choose to explore the course without purchasing, you may not be able to access certain assignments.
What will I get if I pay for this course?
If you pay for this course, you will have access to all of the features and content you need to earn a Course Certificate. If you complete the course successfully, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. Note that the Course Certificate does not represent official academic credit from the partner institution offering the course.
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An Intuitive Introduction to Probability